“Illusory Correlation”
False Association
What is Illusory Correlation?
Assuming that because two things are changing at the same time, one is causing the change of the other.
Business Application
Two statistical data points changing over time does not indicate that there’s a relationship between them. There must be a logical foundation that connects the two. Mistaking this fallacy for fact will waste your time and energy pursuing ineffective procedures.
Example
“Our sales numbers are up since we bought this newspaper ad. Let’s buy ads in more newspapers!“
Why This is a Fallacy
In order to determine if newspaper ads led to more sales, you must poll your new clients or create a means to measure sales directly from the ad. Additionally, even if the ads are effective from one newspaper, similar results may not occur in ad campaigns from other types of newspapers.
